Probability, or Providence?
The "Butterfly Effect" means more to us than to God.
February, 2019
A topic of debate among some believers is the concept of chance—meaning randomness, probability, and so forth. The question boils down to an issue known as determinism. In short, does God specifically, particularly specify every vibration of every atom in the universe? Does He intervene to arrange some things, and leave others to "chance?" Or does He leave a great many things to happen "at random?" The answer, as with many things related to God, requires us to understand the difference between human existence and God's existence.
A handy way of examining this comparison is by looking at something called "The Butterfly Effect." This common name is given to the idea that small changes, over time, can result in drastic outcomes. The phrase initially came from the title of a mathematics paper by Edward Lorenz which he titled Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wings in Brazil set off a Tornado in Texas? The image is that of a butterfly which flaps its wings. The tiny movement of air slightly changes the wind in that spot, which slightly changes the winds around it, and so on. Like ripples in a pond, this change spreads and results something drastically different on the other side of the world—for instance, changing the weather 6,000 miles away from clear to stormy—as compared to what would have happened if the butterfly had not moved at that moment.
Fictional accounts of time travel often rely on this principle, where a single misplaced footprint in the past results in dinosaurs ruling the earth instead of humans. Or where some relatively minor change has far-reaching, unanticipated impacts. The same thought process is applied to other scenarios where a small change can have enormous impacts on the chain of cause and effect. As such, the Butterfly Effect is a popular imagining of a branch of mathematics known as Chaos Theory.
Chaos theory is the study of complex, developing systems which are extremely sensitive to changes in their initial conditions. A concrete example of this would be a suspended chain. Dropping the loose end of the chain from a certain point at a certain angle will cause each link to move in a certain path. A relatively tiny change in that starting angle, or where the chain is lifted, will result in a dramatic change in the movement of the individual links. The longer the chain is allowed to swing free, the larger those deviations become.
Biblically, there are indications of what we think of as "randomness." Jesus referred to the Samaritan's encounter as something which happened "by chance" (Luke 10:30–37). However, what seems random and uncontrolled to human beings is already known and understood by God (Isaiah 55:8–9; Job 42:2). We find it difficult—or impossible—to predict how complex systems will behave when subject to small changes. This is why it's hard to accurately predict the weather.
This is precisely where the key differences between God and man come into play. What seems random and unpredictable to us is no such thing, for God. He not only knows what will happen (Psalm 139:16), He knows what would have happened if circumstances were different (Matthew 11:23; Mark 13:20). The details which make Chaos Theory a difficult discipline for man are obvious and simple for the Creator. Nothing catches God by surprise, escapes His understanding, or confuses Him (Romans 8:28). We may not understand why He allows certain things to happen (Habakkuk 1:2–4), or exactly how He uses things like choices and human experience to accomplish His will (Genesis 50:20). But those are due to our limitations, not His.
In other words, what seems overly complex, "random" and chaotic to us is clear and simple to God. Scripture explains why situations we describe with the Butterfly Effect, to God, are as straightforward as 2+2=4, and known just as easily in advance.
-- Editor
